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Tourism forecast points<br>toward bright year for NPS

After the events of Sept. 11, 2001, the tourism industry went into a downward spiral. That’s not a surprising statement for most, especially those who do the books at Grand Canyon-area businesses.

Gus Seydler, standing, and Don and Sylvia Elkins, all of Texas, enjoy Mather Campground Sunday with the comforts of their RV nearby. RV sales are on the rise and Grand Canyon National Park could see increasing visitation. (Photo by Stacey Davenport/GCN)

But the last quarter of 2002 finished strong and January’s Grand Canyon National Park visitation numbers proved to be up 10 percent over the same month from last year. Now, a favorable forecast from the Travel Industry Association of America gives businesses another reason to smile.

In the report, which was actually released in October of last year just as Grand Canyon’s numbers began to look better, the association predicted better days ahead for National Park Service sites.

"A 3.3-percent increase in recreation visits to the National Park Service will result in 9.1 million more visits, returning the system to pre-2001 level of 285.7 million visits," an NPS regional office release reads, which was based on the Travel Industry Association of America’s report. "Even if the NPS starts experiencing only a 1.5-percent increase in recreation visits every year starting in 2004, by 2010 it will receive 317,082,000 recreation visits. That will be over 40,000,000 more visits than it received in 2001. It will present the NPS an excellent opportunity to excel."

Maureen Oltrogge, GCNP’s public affairs officer, shared the report with participants in Thursday’s community meeting, which is hosted by the park. Oltrogge said NPS sites with access to ocean coasts may benefit the most with a recent surge seen in the cruise line industry. But Grand Canyon could also see better numbers with positive trends in the sale of recreational vehicles.

"The baby boomers will dominate the recreational vehicle market over the next 15 years as they head into prime ownership years with the attitude and discretionary income needed for such a lifestyle," the report reads. "Ownership of RVs in the U.S., is at the highest level ever recorded with 7.2 million RVs on the road. The sale of RVs is expected to increase by 360,000 in 2003, putting additional pressure on overnight stay facilities, especially campgrounds."

Another factor that could benefit Grand Canyon is the report’s prediction that places designated as a World Heritage Site will receive more visitors.

"A World Heritage Site is a place that is significant in the global perspective and a distinction that is highly coveted," the report reads. "Although the value of this designation is not well-known in our own country, many international travelers seek out these sites as worthwhile designations."

Grand Canyon has been designated as a World Heritage Site, one of 20 in the United States.

It’s the international market that many believe must return in order for Grand Canyon tourism to flourish. Those visitors seem to be coming back, but it could be another year before a return to pre-2001 levels are seen.

"Inbound international tourism to America decreased by over 5 million arrivals from 2000 and is not expected to return to pre-Sept. 11 levels until 2004," the report reads. "Twenty-five percent fewer Germans are traveling to the U.S., 23 percent less Brazilians. And not only are there less international visitors but the ones that are traveling are also seeking alternative destinations."

The report predicts that visitors want to experience another side of American culture, which could translate into trips away from crowds to more rural areas.

Oltrogge said that although the forecast appears to be favorable, things could quickly change with a war looming in the near future. There are other factors that could impact visitation, such as terrorism alerts and high gas prices.

Grand Canyon has experienced better numbers in recent months. Bill Johnston, general manager of Grand Canyon National Park Lodges, said Xanterra’s revenue is up 15 to 20 percent over last year and he believed the airport, Grand Canyon Railway and Verkamp’s have also been doing better.

"We are seeing a little bit of an increase in reservations," Johnston said about this year’s bookings. "It looks a little more positive starting off this year."

Xanterra actually had few nights last year that were not sold out, Johnston said, and spots at Phantom Ranch are sold out a few years in advance.

According to January’s visitation statistics compiled by the NPS, Grand Canyon saw a 10.6-percent increase over the same month in 2001.

South Entrance numbers were up nearly 11 percent, including a 67-percent increase in bus visitors and a 41-percent increase in train visitors.

East entrance numbers were up nearly 20 percent, including a 22-percent increase in bus visitors. Overall, there were 156,481 recreation visits in January, compared to 141,451 during the same month in 2001.


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